Representative image: the MotoGP grid at Lusail International Circuit in 2019. Photo: Box Repsol / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0
Count the bikes on the Lusail timing sheet and you get 18, not a full grid of 22. It is tempting to read that as a cheapened title race. It isn’t, and the reason is simple: nobody Yamaha kept at home was anywhere near the championship. The real cost of this weekend lands on Yamaha’s standing with its partners, not on Marc Marquez’s shot at a 2026 crown.
What is confirmed about Yamaha
On Nov. 1, Yamaha told MotoGP Group it will not take part in the Qatar Grand Prix. Its stated reason is that its latest review of the Middle East situation found no grounds to change its company-wide travel restrictions. Yamaha says that is its own assessment, separate from measures taken by MotoGP Group and the event organiser, and that it expects to return at the Portuguese Grand Prix. Monster Energy Yamaha and Prima Pramac Yamaha will not compete.
MotoGP Group answered that it was disappointed. It said that after consulting Qatari authorities, Lusail International Circuit, independent safety advisers and its own risk assessment, it had received no information that would justify changing the event plans, and that the rest of the grid confirmed it would race. It also flagged that Yamaha’s absence has contractual implications with MotoGP and IRTA, while the FIM will handle any sporting consequences under the championship regulations. None of those consequences has been spelled out publicly. We covered the lead-up to the withdrawal earlier this week.
Why the title math doesn’t care
Going into the weekend, the official standings read Marquez 399, Jorge Martin 355 and Marco Bezzecchi 332, a 44-point lead over Martin. MotoGP.com’s preview puts the clinching target at outscoring Martin by 30 points and Bezzecchi by 8 over the weekend. Opening practice at Lusail shows who is in that conversation: Marquez was fastest in 1:52.278, Bezzecchi was 0.110s back, and Martin was fifth, 0.734s off. Every title contender sits in the top five. No Yamaha rider would have changed that.
Here is the part I find more interesting. Martin and Bezzecchi both ride for Aprilia, and each has to beat Marquez, not each other. Every point they take off one another is a point Marquez does not have to defend, so Aprilia’s two-bike chase is also a way of leaking the lead. The Mandalika weekend showed how thin the margins have been, and Lusail is where the arithmetic starts to get unforgiving. That is my read, not a team claim.
The awkward optics for Yamaha
MotoGP.com confirmed on July 1 that Martin and Ogura will form Yamaha’s line-up for 2027 and 2028, with Fabio Quartararo and Alex Rins leaving at the end of this season. So the two riders Yamaha has chosen to build its next era around are both at Lusail this weekend, Martin on the Aprilia and Ogura on the Trackhouse, while their future employer sits out.
That is not a contradiction. Both ride for other teams this year, and a company-wide travel policy is about the company’s own people and operations. But it is an awkward picture for a manufacturer asking the paddock to believe in a rebuilt project: its two most important signings are racing in a place it says it cannot go. Whatever the FIM and the contracts eventually say, Yamaha will spend the winter explaining that one.
The other absences are smaller than they look
Joan Mir is out for Honda HRC and is recovering at home after withdrawing from the Malaysian Grand Prix. Jake Dixon steps in for his first MotoGP weekend in five years, and we have already looked at what that does and doesn’t fix for Honda. In opening practice he was 18th and last, 3.148s off Marquez, which is about what a weekend of getting reacquainted looks like. Alex Marquez is out after shoulder surgery following Sepang, and Iker Lecuona deputises at Gresini, 14th in practice. Martin, Raul Fernandez and Fermin Aldeguer, all doubts earlier in the week, appear on the practice classification.
So the depleted grid is really a Yamaha-shaped hole. Replacement riders are in place and every title contender is present. That makes this a story about a manufacturer and a series disagreeing in public, not about the champion lacking opposition.
What to watch
Saturday’s Sprint is at 19:00 local time, and Sunday’s 22-lap race is at 19:00 as well. Watch how Aprilia handles its two riders against Marquez, and listen for any word on what sporting consequences the FIM intends for Yamaha before its planned return in Portugal.
Lead image: Representative image of the MotoGP grid at Lusail International Circuit in 2019. Photo: Box Repsol / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
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