Kimi Antonelli after winning the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix. Photo: Liauzh via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
Kimi Antonelli can be crowned Formula 1 world champion in Mexico City on Sunday. That is the story everyone has. The one worth your attention is the other trophy: Mercedes can also wrap up the constructors’ title at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, and that outcome leans on the Mercedes driver who is not having a title-winning season, George Russell.
Here is the argument. Mercedes leads Ferrari by 133 points, 607 to 474, with five rounds left. Antonelli leads Russell by 123 in the drivers’ standings, 365 to 242. Those two gaps are nearly twins, and the reason is simple arithmetic: Antonelli plus Russell is exactly Mercedes’ 607, and Lewis Hamilton plus Charles Leclerc is exactly Ferrari’s 474. One of those pairings is a lopsided act. The other is a matched set, and it is the matched set that keeps the constructors’ fight breathing.
The title that is nearly done, and the one that is not
Start with the headline race. By Formula 1’s own points maths, Antonelli clinches with ninth place or better, whatever Russell and Hamilton do. Even a finish of tenth or lower still wins him the title unless Russell or Hamilton takes the race. Austin was the dress rehearsal that did not quite land: Antonelli won, but Hamilton’s fourth and Russell’s eighth, each one place better than he needed, kept the champagne corked. We have already made the case for why an Italian champion in a Mercedes is such a strange twist, and walked through how his one-stop run in Austin set this up.
The constructors’ title is fussier. Formula 1’s permutations say Mercedes can seal it in Mexico City, but the clean version is a 1-2 finish, after which Ferrari would have to score four points or fewer to keep the fight going. Outside a narrow set of results like that, it rolls on to São Paulo. A 1-2 needs two Mercedes cars at the front, which makes Russell’s Sunday matter more than his place in the drivers’ table suggests.
Russell’s Austin was worse than eighth looks
Russell started sixth at the Circuit of the Americas and finished eighth. He took a five-second penalty early for leaving the track and gaining an advantage over Oscar Piastri on lap one, served it in his only stop, then spent much of the race stuck behind the McLaren, finishing 1.6 seconds adrift. His own verdict was “a very bad day,” and he said he did not know where the car’s performance had gone. That is a notable thing to hear from a driver whose teammate had just won from pole.
The awkward implication is that Mercedes has one car winning races, nine for Antonelli this year, and another that cannot explain its own pace. That works fine until the day you need both cars to deliver at once. Mexico City is a rough place to find out. At 2,200 metres above sea level, thin air cuts downforce, so cars run Monaco-level wing settings and still handle like Monza-spec machines. Pirelli brings its C3, C4 and C5 compounds, considers a one-stop race likely, and expects low grip early in the weekend, with fresh asphalt over much of the lap adding to the guesswork. A driver who cannot find the operating window in Austin does not get a free pass from altitude.
Ferrari’s quiet advantage is arithmetic
Ferrari’s pair are separated by eight points, Hamilton on 241 and Leclerc on 233, and Hamilton sits one point behind Russell for second in the drivers’ standings. For most people that is a sideshow. For Ferrari it is the plan: two cars scoring in lockstep is how you keep a 133-point deficit alive. Fred Vasseur said Ferrari had the pace in Austin until the last lap, and Hamilton said that without the late Virtual Safety Car they would have had a real shot at a double podium. Ferrari does not need a miracle. It needs both cars in the points while Mercedes stumbles, which is the only route to dragging the constructors’ fight past this weekend.
What to watch on Sunday
Lights out is 2:00 p.m. local time on Sunday, 1 November, for 71 laps of the 4.304-kilometre circuit. Watch Russell’s first stint, not the lead. If he is running in the top four, Mercedes is on course for a double celebration. If he is mired in the midfield, Antonelli will probably still get his title, and the team will spend the evening explaining why the other trophy has to wait. Mexico City has form for complicating coronations: it hosted Hamilton’s fifth title in 2018, on a day Verstappen won the race.
Facts in this story come from Formula 1’s official standings, points permutations, tyre allocation and timetable pages, and official post-race team and driver statements.
Lead image: Kimi Antonelli after winning the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix. Photo: Liauzh via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0).
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